Panel "Cultures of prediction", ESHS 6th conference of the European Society for the History of Science, Lisbon 4-6.9.2014

5th meeting at the CNRS-Centre A. Koyré Paris, 11-12 October 2012

Hosted by Helene Guillemot, CNRS Paris

"Climate Modeling and Prediction: Scales of Confidence"

11th October 2012

2.00 – 6.00 pm (public workshop)
¬New developments and approaches for the representation of cloud and convection processes in climate models, Dr Frédéric Hourdin and Dr Jean-Yves Grandpeix (LMD– IPSL)
¬Understanding climate processes through a hierarchy of models, Dr Sandrine Bony and Dr Jean-Louis Dufresne (LMD-IPSL)
¬Scaling up: space, code, trust, and the organization of climate modeling work, Professor Paul Edwards (University of Michigan – Sciences Po)

12th October 2012

10.00 - 12.30 am (public workshop)
¬The construction of climate change as a public problem in Germany and France: the role of expertise, Dr Stefan Aykut (IFRIS, LATTS)
¬Cultures of prediction: Towards an understanding of the hegemony of climate models, ProfessorMatthias Heymann (Aarhus University)

2.00 – 4.00 pm (internal meeting)

The 50-year-old Alexandre Koyré Research Centre (UMR 8560) boasts a rich tradition of research in the history of science and technology. Currently, it is composed of nearly one hundred researchers, teacher/researchers, post-doctoral and doctoral students focusing their research mainly on the modern and contemporary periods. Their work could be categorized as “The study and history of scholarly cultures”; investigating local cultural practices and the sharing, communication and dissemination of knowledge. These activities concern the following themes: science in the public domain; circulation as a means of producing knowledge (taking into account the different scales of this circulation: urban, national, regional, European and worldwide); corpora and archives of the history of science; environment, climate and sustainable development; the history of biodiversity; actors, institutions and governance. These issues, though not confined to the specificities of a particular discipline, fall within the history of mathematics, physics, chemistry, medicine, biology, as well as natural history and human sciences. Homepage

4rd Meeting at the University of East Anglia Norwich, 3-4 May 2012 (programm pdf)

Hosted by Professor Mike Hulme and Martin Mahony, School of Environmental Sciences, UEA Norwich

“Climate Science and the Changing Nature of Uncertainty” (public lecture and workshop)
3rd May 2012

9:30 am - 12:15 pm  (public workshop)
¬Dendrochronology and uncertainty management, Professor Keith Briffa, UEA Norwich
¬On the role of the relevant dominant uncertainty in science and in science-based policy, Professor Arthur Petersen, PBL (and Professor Lenny Smith, LSE/Oxford)
¬Managing uncertainties in the production of UK national climate scenarios, Professor Suraje Dessai, University of Leeds

1:30 pm - 5pm (internal meeting)
¬Sub-Group Discussions

5.30-7:00 pm, Keynote (public lecture)
¬Climate Science and the Changing Nature of Uncertainty, Professor Dave Frame, Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University of Wellington, NZ (Generously sponsored by the School of Environmental Sciences, UEA Norwich)

4th May 2012; 9 am - 3 pm (public workshop)
¬Carbon cycle observations, modelling and uncertainties, Professor Corinne Le Queré, UEA Norwich
¬Computer hardware and modelling uncertainties, Professor Thomas Ludwig, DKRZ Hamburg
¬Geoengineering and atmospheric modelling, Dr Johann Feichter, MPI for Meteorology, Hamburg
¬Modelling feedbacks and making decisions, Dr Andy Jarvis, Lancaster University
¬Final discussion

The UEA University of East Anglia (1963-) has a long history of conducting world-renowned research in the environmental and atmospheric sciences. The interdisciplinary School of Environmental Sciences (1967-) has been home to over a dozen IPCC authors and has been called “the strongest in the world” by a former UK Government Chief Scientist. The Climatic Research Unit (CRU) (1971-) has been especially prominent in instrumental and proxy temperature reconstructions, while the Tyndall Centre (2000-) has furthered interdisciplinary work on climate change. Homepage

3rd Meeting at Munich, 13-14 October 2011 (program pdf)

"Climate Risk and Natural Hazards" closed workshop
13. October 2011, 2-6 pm (Munich Re, hosted by Dr Eberhard Faust)
¬Introduction, Dr Eberhard Faust, Head of Research of the Climate Risks and Natural Hazards, Munich Re
¬Presentation of current topics at Munich Re Geo Risks Research Eberhard Faust

Munich Re is a large reinsurance company which runs a research group on Geo Risks including risk from natural climate variability and climate change. Furthermore, Munich Re has a Corporate Climate Centre that focuses on business solutions related to climate change issues. Munich Re: Leopoldstr. 36 - 80802 Munich. Homepage

"Simulation & Measurement" public workshop
14. October 20122, 10 am - 4 pm (DLR Institut fuer Physik der Atmosphaere, hosted by Dr Hans Volkert)
¬Experiments and algorithms as seen from philosophy of science, Dr Gabriele Gramelsberger, FU Berlin
¬Categories of experiments at IPA since 1960, Dr Hans Volkert, DLR-IPA Oberpfaffenhofen
 ¬Lidar measurements: no observation without algorithm, Dr
 Oliver Reitebuch, DLR-IPA Oberpfaffenhofen
¬Aircraft wake vortices: Observation and simulation at different levels of fidelity, Dr Frank Holzäpfel, DLR-IPA Oberpfaffenhofen
 ¬Measuring at the IPA: the case of artificial radioactivity,
Dania Achermann, DLR-IPA Oberpfaffenhofen / RCC Munich
¬Lab-visit (e.g. POLDIRAD, Airchemistry-Lab, Aircraft hangar)

The Institut fuer Physik der Atmosphaere is one of the 31 research institutes of the Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR). It deals with weather and climate, e.g. through tailored measurements and simulations. DLR-IPA Munich-Oberfaffenhofen. Homepage

2nd Meeting at Potsdam, 12-13 May 2011 (program pdf)

Hosted by Dr Birgit Schneider, Institute for Arts and Media, University of Potsdam

"Visualizing Climate" public workshop
12. May 2011, 2pm – 6:30pm (location: Einstein Forum, Lecture Hall, Am Neuen Markt 7, 14467 Potsdam-Centre)
¬Water Colors versus black and white Photographs-Souvenirs from World War II, PD Dr Cornelia Luedecke, Universität München/Universität Hamburg
¬Visualizing/Creating Global Phenomena in the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Dr Sebastian Grevsmuehl, Centre Alexandre Koyré (CNRS / EHESS), Paris
¬Visualization of uncertainties in climate and climate impact research, Dr Thomas Nocke, Dep. Transdisciplinary Concepts and Methods, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
¬The Epistemic Value of Visualization in Climatology, Dr Birgit Schneider, Institute for Arts & Media, University of Potsdam

Internal Meeting
13. May 2011, 9:30 am - 2 pm (location: Urania, Gutenbergstr.72,14467 Potsdam-Centre)

The 20-year old Potsdam University is located in Brandenburg’s capital city, close to Berlin. In Potsdam many geoscientific institutions are located, for instance the PIK Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. The DFG Network Meeting is held at the Institute for Arts and Media, University of Potsdam. Homepage

1st Meeting at Munich, 17-18 November 2010 (program pdf)

Hosted by Professor Helmuth Trischler, Rachel Carson Center Munich

Internal Meeting
16. December 2010, 2pm - 6pm (Rachel Carson Center, Munich)

"Politics of Scale" public workshop
17. December 2010, 10 am - 2 pm (Deutsches Museum, Library, Seminar Room)
¬Is complexity the new framework for the study of global life, Dr Emilian Kawalski, University of Western Sydney/RCC Fellow
¬Model migrations: Mobility and boundary crossings in regional climate prediction, Martin Mahony, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia
¬Mapping uncertainty in environmental computer simulation modeling, Dr Catharina Landström, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia
¬Assessing and communicating uncertainties in regional changes in weather extremes caused by global warming, Professor Arthur Petersen, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
¬Models and trust: How can we gain an understanding of computer simulation?, Professor Matthias Heymann, Department of Science Studies, Aarhus University

The Rachel Carson Center is a joint initiative of LMU University Munich and the Deutsches Museum. Generously supported by the German Ministry of Research and Education, its goal is to further research and discussion in the field of international environmental studies and to strengthen the role of the humanities in the current political and scientific debates about the environment. Homepage


Preliminar to the network meetings

Exploring Epistemic Shifts in Computer-Based Environmental Sciences

ESF Exploratory Worshop at the University of Aarhus, 10-12 June 2010

Convened by Professor Matthias Heymann, Aarhus University and Dr Gabriele Gramelsberger, FU Berlin

Participants: Aslihan Kerc, Istanbul; Kristine C. Harper, Talahassee; Sonja Palfner, TU Berlin; Hans Volkert & Dania Achermann, DLR Oberpfaffenhofen; Martin Mahony, Norwich; Nils Hundebol, Aarhus; Mathis Hampel, Vanice; Matthijs Kouw, Masstricht; Helene Guillemot, Paris; Vladimir Jankovic, Manchester; Peter Brimblecomb, Norwich; Arthur Petersen, Bilthoven; Stig Andur Pedersen, Roskilde; Thomas Ludwig, Hamburg; Mikela Sundberg, Stockholm; Henrik Kragh Sorensen, Aarhus; Johann Feichter, Zurich; Mike Hulme, Norwich; Helge Kragh, Aarhus; Matthias Heymann, Aarhus; Gabriele Gramelsberger, Berlin.